Fort Worth-Arlington Prices Not Likely to Fall

From the Star Telegram today...

Fort Worth-Arlington is one part of the country that is least likely to see a decline in home prices in the next two years, according to a report released Tuesday by PMI Group.

The Dallas-Plano-Irving area is also one of the least risky of 50 metropolitan areas. Both areas had less than a 1 percent chance of home prices falling in the next two years, according to the report.

The stability comes largely from the area's strong job growth and housing affordability, said David Berson, chief economist and strategist for PMI, an insurer of mortgage lenders. Plus, the slight appreciation of home prices in recent years has given the area a slow, sustainable price growth.

"Because you didn't have that huge run-up, you won't see it run down," Berson said.
The risk assessment figures are based on price appreciation, the job market, housing supply and foreclosures.

"It's not just the Metroplex," Berson said. "Many parts of Texas are doing well."

States such as California, Nevada and Florida have the highest chance of prices falling, the report says. They saw large leaps in housing prices in recent years, Berson said. That increase was unsustainable as job growth and affordability fell.

The stability is good news for buyers, said Bob Havran, president of mortgage-lending group OmniAmerican Bank in Fort Worth.

Borrowers here have a bigger selection of mortgages than in riskier parts of the country, he said.
"Lenders are eager to loan in North Texas," Havran said.

HOLDING THE LINE ON HOME PRICES

The chances of home prices falling in North Texas is remote, according to a study by PMI Group:

Chance of prices falling...

Fort Worth-Arlington
less than 1 percent

Dallas-Plano-Irving
less than 1 percent

Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
less than 1 percent

San Antonio
less than 1 percent

Austin area
less than 1 percent

Nationwide

Denver area
1 percent

St. Louis
2 percent

Nashville
2 percent

Chicago area
3 percent

Philadelphia
3 percent

Atlanta
3 percent

Seattle
7 percent

Baltimore area
12 percent

Detroit area
17 percent

Boston area
22 percent

Sacramento, Calif., area
73 percent

Orlando, Fla., area
74 percent

Los Angeles area
79 percent

Las Vegas area
89 percent

Riverside, Calif., area
94 percent

Source: PMI Group